Overview
ClimRisk Platform v0.6
Company
Scenario
Company Setup
Tell us about your company — we'll enrich your data with WRI Aqueduct, NGFS, NASA, and IEA open-source data
1
Company
2
Financials
3
Assets & Map
4
Emissions
5
Targets
6
Review & Run
Company Identity
Basic company information — all from your Annual Report or company registration. These 4 fields are required to start the analysis.
Head office address — used for disclosure reports
Used for peer comparison context
Affects rating confidence shown to stakeholders
Step 1 of 6 — Company Identity
Financial Data
From your most recent Annual Report / 10-K. All values in USD millions. Currency conversion: use year-end FX rate. The first 5 fields are required.
Where to find thisIncome Statement → Revenue, EBITDA. Cash Flow Statement → Capital Expenditure. Balance Sheet → Total Debt, Cash, Shares Outstanding.
Total debt minus cash. Negative = net cash.
Used to compare CRI-implied vs market price
Pre-climate risk. Default: sector benchmark (8–9%)
Effective corporate tax rate
% of capex that is maintenance (not growth)
Step 2 of 6 — Financials
Assets & Physical Locations
Add each major producing asset (mine, refinery, plant, platform). Click the map to place an asset, or enter coordinates manually. We use your location to look up WRI Aqueduct water/flood/drought risk and NASA NEX-GDDP heat stress — automatically.
What counts as an asset?Any site that contributes ≥5% of revenue, or has a carrying value ≥ $100M. Include at least your top 3–5 producing assets. Generic "corporate" or "G&A" assets can be omitted.
CSV format:
Example:
Commodity options: iron_ore, copper, aluminium, coal_thermal, coal_metallurgical, crude_oil, natural_gas, refined_products, cement, electricity · 📥 Download blank template
asset_name, lat, lon, carrying_value_usd_m, commodity, production, unitExample:
Pilbara Iron Ore Mine, -22.5, 118.2, 4200, iron_ore, 85000000, tCommodity options: iron_ore, copper, aluminium, coal_thermal, coal_metallurgical, crude_oil, natural_gas, refined_products, cement, electricity · 📥 Download blank template
Step 3 of 6 — Assets & Map
GHG Emissions
From your Sustainability Report or CDP disclosure. If you don't have these, we apply sector-average intensity benchmarks from IEA/IPCC — clearly flagged in your output.
Select the primary electricity source to calibrate Scope 2 carbon intensity and CBAM liability.
CBAM applies to iron, steel, cement, aluminium, fertiliser, electricity, and hydrogen imports into the EU from January 2026.
Direct emissions from owned/controlled sources — if entered, used instead of production estimate
Purchased electricity & heat (location-based)
PROXY ±40%
Sector spend-based factor (GHG Protocol Cat.1). Replace with your CDP submission for CALCULATED status.
Shadow price used for investment appraisal
% of priced emissions covered by free allowances (EU ETS, SAFIS)
Step 4 of 6 — Emissions
Transition Goals & Current Initiatives
Helps us assess alignment with net-zero pathways and model your transition capex. All fields optional — skip if not yet formalised.
Step 5 of 6 — Transition Targets
Review & Run Analysis
Your data summary and what we'll enrich from open sources. Click Run Climate Risk Analysis to generate your full assessment.
Open-source data enrichment — auto-applied to your assets
WRI Aqueduct 4.0
Water · Flood · Drought risk by asset location
21 major regions mapped · lat/lon API for all others
NGFS Phase 4 (2023)
Carbon price paths 2026–2050 · 3 scenarios
NZE: $130 → $250/tCO₂e · CP: $15 → $35/tCO₂e by 2050
NASA NEX-GDDP / IPCC AR6
Heat stress probability by region · 2026–2050
+40% frequency per °C above baseline · 34 regions
IEA WEO 2023 / Our World in Data
Commodity demand indices · 9 commodities × 4 scenarios
Iron ore, copper, oil, gas, coal, aluminium, lithium, nickel
Running climate risk engine across 3 scenarios (2026–2050)…
Step 6 of 6 — Ready to run
Overview
Climate-adjusted valuation across scenarios · All values USD
NZE 2050
Delayed Transition
Current Policies
EBITDA Trajectory — All Scenarios ($B)
Free Cash Flow — Selected Scenario ($B)
EBITDA Bridge ($B)
Physical Climate Risk Hazards
25-hazard SSP/IPCC AR6 asset-level assessment · GIS lat/lon resolver · Equipment sensitivity matrix · NASA LULC · WRI Aqueduct · SRTM elevation
Heat Stress
WBGT · labour loss
Riverine Flood
Clausius-Clapeyron precip
Coastal Flood
Storm surge + SLR
Sea Level Rise
Chronic inundation
Saltwater Intrusion
Groundwater salinisation
Landslide
Terrain + LULC cover
Wildfire
FWI · NASA FIRMS
Cyclone
IBTRACS · Knutson 2020
Drought
PDSI scaling · IPCC
Water Stress
WRI Aqueduct 4.0
Extreme Cold
Cold waves · frost disruption
Blade Icing
IEA Wind Task 19 · ERA5 MWT
Extratropical Cyclone
Mid-lat storm systems
Flash Flood
Convective precipitation
Permafrost Thaw
NSIDC · Arctic amplification
Dust Storm
WMO SDS-WAS · Köppen
Hail
CAPE instability · IPCC AR6
Lightning
Romps et al 2014 scaling
Subsidence
Groundwater · clay shrinkage
Freeze-Thaw Cycle
Infrastructure cracking
Compound Flood
Joint riverine+coastal 1.3×
Avalanche
Elevation >800m · wet-snow
Marine Heatwave
Oliver et al 2021 · SST
GLOF
Glacial lake outburst
Tornado
CAPE · Tornado Alley
v0.4 — 25 IPCC AR6 Hazards: Core 10 (original) + 15 new (purple border) including equipment-specific hazards (blade icing for wind turbines, permafrost for pipelines). GIS resolver uses real lat/lon → elevation, coastal distance, Köppen zone, permafrost extent, ERA5 winter temperatures.
📋 IPCC AR6 Hazard Category Alignment — This engine covers all 10 acute & chronic physical hazard categories identified by IPCC AR6 WG1 Ch.11 and WGII Ch.3–4 as financially material:
Heat Stress (Ch.11.3)
Riverine Flood (Ch.11.5)
Coastal Flood (Ch.11.5)
Sea Level Rise (Ch.9)
Saltwater Intrusion (Ch.9)
Landslide (Ch.11.5)
Wildfire (Ch.11.6)
Cyclone/TC (Ch.11.7)
Drought (Ch.11.6)
Water Stress (Ch.11.6)
ℹ️ Why some hazards show "Not applicable": Coastal Flood, Sea Level Rise, and Saltwater Intrusion are inherently coastal hazards per IPCC definitions — they do not affect inland sites (>80 km from coast or elevation >20 m). This is geophysically correct behaviour, not a data gap. Landslide is not applicable on flat terrain (GPS slope factor <0.25). These results reflect site-specific GPS-resolved assessments aligned with IPCC AR6 methodology.
MethodologyJoint annual production loss = 1 − ∏(1 − pᵢ) across all applicable hazards per asset. Per-asset physical risk score = mean applicable severity × 20 (0–100 scale). Portfolio score = equal-weighted average across all assets — every asset's hazard is equally material for regulatory risk disclosure (TCFD / IFRS S2 / CSRD), regardless of its carrying value. CV-weighting would suppress risk by allowing safe high-value assets to dilute high-risk smaller sites, which is the opposite of what risk identification requires. Financial exposure ($M at risk) is separately quantified as Σ(carrying_value × annual_loss_pct) — this is where asset value is correctly applied, to quantify dollar impact rather than to hide risk. This formula matches the Climate Rating physical pillar exactly. The Climate Rating composite = physical × 35% + transition × 35% + financial × 30%. SSP scenarios from IPCC AR6 WG1; LULC proxy from NASA MODIS/HLS; elevation from SRTM/Copernicus DEM. Model scope: Baseline hazard values calibrated from WRI Aqueduct 4.0 regional statistics and IPCC AR6 published impact functions covering 80+ country/region codes. GPS coordinates trigger site-level modifiers (coastal distance, elevation, slope, river proximity). This is a parameterised assessment framework built on peer-reviewed science — not a live geospatial API query. Suitable for TCFD, IFRS S2, CSRD, ECB, and EBA Pillar 3 disclosure support; review by a qualified risk professional is recommended before regulatory submission. Spatial downscaling (25 km → 1 km): Open-Meteo's CMIP6 Climate Change API (MRI-AGCM3.2-S, 0.25° / ~25 km resolution) provides projections at the asset's actual grid cell — not interpolated from distant regional centroids. The warming delta is computed as T_future − T_historical within the same model and grid cell, which eliminates the systematic 10–20°C GCM mean-state bias that arises when comparing CMIP6 output directly to reanalysis. The raw delta is SSP-scaled via IPCC AR6 WG1 Table 4.5 GMST ratios and added to the NASA POWER MERRA-2 observed baseline (0.5° / ~55 km, 2001–2020). WRI Aqueduct regional baselines are blended from the nearest available regions (capped at 2000 km; with full coverage for Europe, Americas, Asia-Pacific, and China provinces). Sub-grid terrain corrections — elevation lapse rate, coastal proximity, urban heat island, slope factor, river proximity — are applied at 1 km precision. See the 🔬 Downscaling tab in the Portfolio Map above for the grid-cell visualisation.
SSP Scenario:
Portfolio Weighting:
Asset Hazard Profile
Production Loss by Asset (%) — Joint Probability
Transition Risk Parameters
Scenario-driven policy and market parameters flowing into revenue, cost, and valuation
Three transition channelsCarbon price — taxes Scope 1+2 at the scenario path, reduced by free-allocation. Commodity demand — energy transition shifts demand for oil, coal, copper via scenario elasticities. Technology curves — falling renewable costs compress fossil margins.
Carbon Price Paths (USD / tCO₂e)
Carbon Cost as % of Revenue
Scenario Parameters
| Parameter | NZE 2050 | Delayed Transition | Current Policies |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carbon price 2030 (USD/tCO₂e) | $130 | $30 | $15 |
| Carbon price 2050 (USD/tCO₂e) | $250 | $180 | $35 |
| Oil demand index 2040 (2025 = 100) | 58 | 75 | 95 |
| Coal demand index 2040 | 35 | 55 | 88 |
| Copper demand index 2040 | 145 | 128 | 112 |
| WACC climate premium (bps) | −50 | +50 | 0 |
| Policy shock / abrupt repricing | None | ~2030 | None |
| Scope 1+2 carbon price coverage | 90% | 70% | 40% |
CBAM Liability Analysis
EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism — embedded carbon cost and compliance obligations from 2026
What is CBAM?The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (Regulation 2023/956) requires importers of covered goods (steel, iron, cement, aluminium, fertiliser, electricity, hydrogen) to purchase CBAM certificates equal to the carbon price that would have been paid under the EU ETS. Full financial obligation begins 1 January 2026. Transitional reporting began October 2023.
Exposure Level
Run assessment
Select company and run assessment first
Est. Annual Certificate Cost
—
at EU ETS price (2026 scenario)
Embedded Carbon (est.)
—
tCO₂e attributed to EU-bound production
CBAM Compliance Timeline
| Phase | Period | Obligation | Penalty (non-compliance) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transitional | Oct 2023 – Dec 2025 | Quarterly embedded-carbon reporting (no payment) | €10–€50 per tonne unreported |
| Definitive (Phase 1) | Jan 2026 – Dec 2027 | CBAM certificates at EU ETS price (100% coverage) | €100 per excess tonne |
| Definitive (Phase 2) | Jan 2028+ | EU ETS free allocations phased out → full CBAM cost | Market certificate + €100 surcharge |
Cost Parameters
Climate-driven cost breakdown and trajectory through 2050
Cost decompositionCarbon cost = Scope 1+2 emissions × carbon price × (1 − free allocation). Energy opex rises with carbon price inflator. Physical loss = foregone contribution margin × hazard-driven loss fraction. Adaptation capex ≈ 50% of hazard-weighted production exposure.
Carbon Cost Trajectory ($B)
EBITDA Margin (%)
Opex + Carbon Cost by Company — NZE ($B)
Company Comparison
Side-by-side climate resilience across loaded companies
Enterprise Value by Scenario ($B)
Climate Risk Scorecard
| Company | NZE EV | CP EV | NZE vs CP | Carbon Cost 2050 (% rev) | Rating |
|---|
Statistical View
Uncertainty ranges and probabilistic valuation
Scenario-envelope approachNZE = P10 (aggressive transition), Delayed Transition = P50 (base case), Current Policies = P90 (slow transition). Monte Carlo scenario sampling available in the full analysis workflow.
EV Probability Distribution
FCF Fan — P10 / P50 / P90 ($B)
Key Risk Statistics
| Metric | P10 NZE | P50 DT | P90 CP | Width |
|---|
Climate Risk Rating
CRI composite A–E rating across physical, transition, and financial dimensions
📊 How the composite score is built —
The physical pillar (35% weight) is the equal-weighted average of individual asset physical risk scores (0–100 severity scale) — the same formula used in the Physical Risk and Supply Chain panels. Equal-weighting is required for regulatory risk disclosure (TCFD / IFRS S2 / CSRD): every asset is equally material regardless of book value.
The transition pillar (35%) is carbon cost as % of EBITDA under the NZE 2030 scenario.
The financial pillar (30%) is enterprise-value at risk under NZE vs Current Policies.
The composite therefore lies below individual high-scoring assets when those assets are offset by lower transition or financial risk, or by other assets with lower physical scores.
Free Tier — Rating Overview
You're seeing the A–E rating, pillar labels, and summary narrative. Upgrade to Analyst to unlock full numeric scores, asset-level breakdown, and peer driver detail.
CRI Subscription Plans
Financial Disclosures
Climate disclosure data points aligned to TCFD · IFRS S2 · EU CSRD ESRS E1
Professional Tier Feature
Full TCFD, ISSB S2, and EU CSRD reports are generated by the CRI engine and available on request. Contact us to discuss scope and access. The preview below shows the structure and selected free data points.
Governance TCFD Pillar 1
Board oversight of climate riskRecommended
Climate on Board agenda (quarterly)Action needed
CRO-led climate risk managementAligned
Strategy — Scenario Analysis TCFD Pillar 2
Scenarios usedNZE 2050 · Delayed Transition · Current Policies
AlignmentNGFS Phase 4 (2023)
Horizon2026–2050 (annual)
Risk Management TCFD Pillar 3
Metrics & Targets — Professional tier required
Full GHG emissions breakdown (Scope 1/2/3), carbon intensity, SBTi targets, and TCFD-aligned narrative export to PDF are available from the Professional plan. Book a demo →
Cross-Industry Climate Metrics IFRS S2 App B
Financial Effects of Climate Risk IFRS S2 10–25
Industry-specific metrics — Professional tier required
Mining/Oil & Gas sector-specific IFRS S2 metrics, internal carbon price disclosures, remuneration linkage, and full ISSB S2 data pack export are in the Professional plan. Book a demo →
E1-1 Transition Plan
Net-zero target year2050
Interim target 2030−30% vs 2025 baseline
Interim target 2035−50% vs 2025 baseline
SBTi validation statusPending
E1-6 GHG Emissions (Scope 1/2/3) ESRS E1-6
E1-9 Financial Effects ESRS E1-9
Full CSRD E1 data pack — Professional tier required
All 9 ESRS E1 data point tables, double-materiality assessment template, and structured XML export for EU digital reporting are available from the Professional plan. Book a demo →
GenAI Report
Export a structured prompt to any AI assistant to generate a detailed investment report
How it worksGenerate a prompt containing all current analysis data. Copy it and paste into Claude, ChatGPT, or Gemini to produce a board briefing, investment memo, or ESG disclosure section.
Output format
Click Generate to create your AI-ready analysis prompt...
Report Intelligence
Upload existing CSRD, TCFD or SBRS climate reports — CRI extracts all data and feeds it into the analysis engine automatically
Report Framework
What gets extracted:
Scope 1 / 2 / 3 emissions · Asset locations · Revenue & EBITDA · Carbon targets · Existing risk assessments · Sector & geography data
Scope 1 / 2 / 3 emissions · Asset locations · Revenue & EBITDA · Carbon targets · Existing risk assessments · Sector & geography data
📄
Drop PDF reports here or click to browse
Supports: PDF, TXT · Multiple files at once
PDF.js required — loads from CDN automatically
Regulatory Hub
Country-specific climate disclosure frameworks — compliance mapping, double materiality & methodology audit trail
Select Your Jurisdiction
Integrated Climate Risk Report
Asset-level physical risk, financial quantification, damage breakdown & transition correlation
⚡ Physical × Transition Risk Matrix All Assets
Bubble size ∝ carrying value. X = Physical Score (0–100). Y = Transition (Carbon Cost % of Revenue). Quadrant I = highest combined risk.
💰 Financial Exposure at Risk USD M
Physical at Risk ($M)
Transition Carbon Cost ($M)
🏭 Assets at Risk — Ranked by Combined Exposure
📈 Physical Risk Trajectory 2026–2070 Ann. Loss %
🌡 Hazard Severity Contribution by Asset
⚡ Transition Risk Timeline — Carbon Cost as % of EBITDA (NZE vs Current Policies)
🎯 Combined Climate-at-Risk (CaR) — Enterprise Value Impact Assessment
🏭 Asset-Level Damage & Production Impact Report
Customer ViewSelect any asset to see exactly what is damaged, what production is lost, what materials are at risk, and recovery costs — if each applicable hazard event occurs at its projected severity for the selected scenario and year.
📋 Custom Risk Events & Scenarios
How it worksLog observed climate events, equipment failures, or anticipated risks. Each logged event is incorporated into scenario analysis and stored for future reference and insurance documentation.
No custom events logged yet. Click "Log Risk Event" or "Log New Event" to add observed or anticipated risks.
Data Integration
Import your live financial model · Supports Excel (.xlsx) and Asset CSV files · Real-time sync updates the engine when your file changes
Connect your data file
Click to browse, or drag & drop your .xlsx file (full company model with Financials, Assets, Emissions sheets) or an asset .csv file (asset_name, lat, lon, carrying_value_usd_m, commodity, production, unit).
Imported Data Preview
Connect an Excel file or use demo data below.
No supplier data loaded.
No financial data loaded.
No emissions data loaded.
Excel Template Structure
📋 Sheet 1: Company
Company name, sector, WACC, market cap, net debt
Company name, sector, WACC, market cap, net debt
🏭 Sheet 2: Assets
Asset name, lat/lon, carrying value, revenue, EBITDA, Scope 1/2, production
Asset name, lat/lon, carrying value, revenue, EBITDA, Scope 1/2, production
🔗 Sheet 3: Suppliers
Supplier name, tier, location, material, annual spend, critical flag
Supplier name, tier, location, material, annual spend, critical flag
🌿 Sheet 4: Emissions
Scope 3 by category per asset (purchased goods, transport, use of products, etc.)
Scope 3 by category per asset (purchased goods, transport, use of products, etc.)
Supply Chain Climate Risk
Tier 1/2/3 supplier exposure · climate hazard at every node · choke point detection
Total Suppliers Tracked
—
Critical Nodes
—
Total Annual Spend
—
Risk-Adj. Spend Uplift
—
Scenario:
Supplier Risk Profile
Risk-Adjusted Spend by Supplier (USD M)
Double Materiality Assessment
CSRD / ESRS 1 compliant — inside-out impact lens and outside-in financial lens with threshold documentation
Marginal Abatement Cost Curve (MACC)
Decarbonization levers ranked by cost per tonne — identifies projects that pay for themselves at today's carbon price
MACC — Abatement Initiatives Ranked by Cost per Tonne
Site Assessment
Compare up to 3 candidate sites across climate hazards, engineering specifications, and CapEx resilience uplift for new infrastructure investments.
CANDIDATE SITE CONFIGURATION
Site 1
Site Name
Latitude
Longitude
Asset Type
Design Life
Commissioning
EU Taxonomy DNSH Guidance
New infrastructure must satisfy the Do No Significant Harm test under EU Taxonomy Regulation 2020/852 to qualify as a sustainable economic activity.
This assessment addresses the Climate Change Adaptation objective under Article 11. Physical hazard exposure exceeding severity 3.5 over the asset design life triggers mandatory adaptation measures before taxonomy alignment can be claimed.
DNSH documentation covering all six environmental objectives is required for green bond issuance and sustainable finance instruments. Findings from this tool should be referenced in the Technical Screening Criteria annex of your taxonomy disclosure.
🏦 Loan Portfolio — Climate Risk & Net-Zero Target Setting
ECB/EBA climate risk · PCAF financed emissions · IEA NZE 2030 target setting · Portfolio decarbonisation feasibility
No loan book loaded
Climate ECL by Sector (USD M)
Borrower Climate Rating Distribution
Borrower Risk Assessment
| Borrower | Sector | Region | Loan (M) | LTV | Phys. Score | Top Hazard | PD Uplift | IFRS 9 ECL / FLI | IFRS 9 Stage | Climate Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import a loan book Excel file to begin assessment | ||||||||||
Regulatory Framework Summary
Portfolio Climate Risk Roll-up
Cross-asset aggregation · portfolio CaR · Scope 3 value chain emissions
Scenario:
Company-Level Risk Aggregation
Portfolio CaR Breakdown ($B)
Physical vs Transition Risk Correlation
Scope 3 Emissions — Value Chain (tCO2e)
MethodologyUpstream Scope 3 estimated using IPCC/GHG Protocol emission factors per spend category. Downstream based on product carbon intensity × annual production. Total = Sum of all 15 GHG Protocol Scope 3 categories.
Actual Financial Model Integration
Scenario Cascade Engine
Three-layer climate risk workflow · Physical hazard → Financial cascade → Optional transition overlay
CRI Engine — Three-Layer Architecture
Layer 1 · Always Runs
🌡 Physical Hazard Assessment
PhysicalHazardEngine evaluates each asset across 9 hazard types:
heat stress · flooding · cyclone · drought · wildfire · sea-level rise · freeze · permafrost · water stress
heat stress · flooding · cyclone · drought · wildfire · sea-level rise · freeze · permafrost · water stress
Output: HazardScore per asset (severity_index 0–5)
→
Layer 2 · Always Runs
⛓ Scenario Cascade Engine
ScenarioCascadeEngine converts hazard scores into itemised financial costs:
asset damage · production loss · emergency response · supply chain disruption
asset damage · production loss · emergency response · supply chain disruption
Output: EBITDA impact % · Credit spread bps · Recovery months
→
OPTIONAL
Layer 3 · Toggle On/Off
🔄 Transition Risk Overlay
NGFS carbon pricing scenarios overlaid on Layer 2 output. 0.7 physical–transition correlation factor prevents double-counting.
Output: Combined EBITDA impact including carbon cost
Event & Scenario Configuration
Include Transition Overlay Layer 3
NGFS delayed_transition · 0.7 correlation factor
Company Profile
API:
Live Meteorological Events
Global GDACS active alerts · Real-time hazard tracking · Industry EBITDA impact calibration
Active Event Map
📰 Global Climate & Disaster News
📡
Loading news…
Data Sources
Disaster alerts: GDACS (Global Disaster Alert & Coordination System) RSS · USGS Earthquake GeoJSON (M5.0+ global, 7-day rolling) · News: Google News RSS (climate/disaster search). Financial loss estimates: CRI parameterised model calibrated vs Munich Re NatCatSERVICE, Swiss Re sigma, EM-DAT (1997–2024). All figures are estimates for risk awareness, not official loss assessments. Map tiles: OpenStreetMap via Leaflet. Auto-refreshes every 10 minutes.
Climate Risk Intelligence
📈 Predictive Outlook 2025 → 2050
Year-by-year hazard trajectories under each IPCC AR6 emission scenario · NGFS sector damage functions
Asset
Scenarios
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Composite Hazard Score Trajectory
0 = no risk · 100 = catastrophic · IPCC AR6 physics
Annual Revenue at Risk (%)
% of revenue exposed to physical climate losses per year · NGFS sector damage functions
Per-Hazard Trajectory — SSP3-7.0 Reference
Individual hazard score trends showing which risks escalate fastest at this location
Local Climate Signal
Threshold Crossing Years
Decarbonisation Benefit
Avoided revenue-at-risk by transitioning from BAU (SSP5-8.5) to Net Zero (SSP1-2.6)
Methodology: Warming trajectory: IPCC AR6 WGI SPM Table 1 medians scaled by regional amplification (AR6 Atlas).
Hazard scores: 25-hazard engine with WRI Aqueduct 4.0 baselines, CMIP6 precipitation & heat projections.
Financial translation: NGFS Phase 4 (2023) sector damage functions · Swiss Re Sigma 2023 extreme event costs.
Break-even carbon price: NGFS Phase 4 sector carbon intensities; operating margins from Damodaran (2024).
Uncertainty: projections show central estimate; actual outcomes may vary by ±30–50% depending on local adaptation measures.